Between 2005 and 2025, student numbers at universities (U), universities of applied sciences (UAS) and teacher education institutions (TEI) rose sharply. At bachelor and master level, they increased by 79 %, from 137 000 students in 2005 to 246 000 in 2025. According to the FSO's reference scenario, strong growth is also expected in the coming years. By 2035, 305 000 students are expected to be enrolled at higher education institutions (+21 % compared with 2026). The main reasons for this development are, on the one hand, population growth (estimated at +6 %) and, on the other hand, the increase in the number of international students (+19 % enrolments at bachelor level, +37 % at master level). Similar growth is expected for all three types of higher education institutions (U: +21 %, UAS: +19 and TEI: +23 %).
Between 2005 and 2025, student numbers at universities (U), universities of applied sciences (UAS) and teacher education institutions (TEI) rose sharply. At bachelor and master level, they increased by 79 %, from 137 000 students in 2005 to 246 000 in 2025. According to the FSO's reference scenario, strong growth is also expected in the coming years. By 2035, 305 000 students are expected to be enrolled at higher education institutions (+21 % compared with 2026). The main reasons for this development are, on the one hand, population growth (estimated at +6 %) and, on the other hand, the increase in the number of international students (+19 % enrolments at bachelor level, +37 % at master level). Similar growth is expected for all three types of higher education institutions (U: +21 %, UAS: +19 and TEI: +23 %).
Significant increase in higher vocational education
Student numbers at higher vocational schools are expected to rise significantly between 2026 and 2035 (+17 %). By 2035, 41 300 students are expected at diploma level. The number of qualifications awarded is expected to increase by 16 %. An increase is also expected for federal diplomas (+15 %), while the number of federal vocational certificates is expected to remain stable (+1 %).
Moderate increases in secondary level II programmes
At secondary level II, apprentice numbers are expected to grow more moderately in the coming years, mainly as a result of population growth in the relevant age groups. By 2035, an increase of 10 % is expected in basic vocational education (federal certificate of proficiency and federal certificate of competence) and 12 % in general education programmes (gymnasium maturity and vocational colleges).
End of growth at secondary level I
Due to the sharply declining birth rate since 2022, pupil numbers at secondary level I are also expected to decline in the long term. They are expected to continue increasing until 2031, then stabilise until 2033 (+5 % compared with 2026), and subsequently decline rapidly (–2 % between 2033 and 2035).
Sharp decline at primary level
In recent years, the number of pupils at primary level (grades 3–8) has increased sharply. In 2025, it stood at 566 900 (estimated value). Pupil numbers are expected to peak in 2027/28 and then decline due to the falling birth rate since 2022. After 2032, the development will depend on the number of future births and is therefore subject to greater uncertainty. According to the reference scenario, 527 000 pupils are expected in 2035 (–8 % compared with 2026).
Significant uncertainties
There are currently significant uncertainties, which is why the results should be interpreted with caution. In the higher education sector, it is difficult to predict how many students will come from abroad. Their share of bachelor students, for example, has risen from 14 % to 18 % over the past ten years. Further factors of uncertainty are structural changes, the number of future births, and the economic situation. For this reason, three scenarios are being considered.